Energy Risk Analysis — Weekly Intelligence Briefing & Risk Matrix

The week to 12 October moved from the water to the shore. Tanker strikes in the Gulf continued — the Panama-flagged On Peace on 6 October (12 crew injured, 11 of them Indian), Acers off Qatar on 7 October (casualties reported) and the laden VLCC GEM NO.2 off the UAE on 9 October — taking GEF’s count to at least seven named vessels struck since 1 October, against nine ships counted by the IMO for 1–6 October alone. At the weekend an unnamed outbound tanker was hit by a projectile in the strait on the night of 10 October (UKMTO; fire, crew safe), the UAE National Guard rescued 22 crew from a burning tanker in Gulf waters, and a US fighter jet disabled the cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman as it tried to run the blockade. CENTCOM counts four commercial vessels disabled and 135 turned back since the blockade resumed on 14 July.

The larger change came on land. On Saturday 10 October a missile hit terminals 3 and 4 of Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport: Saudi civil aviation put the toll at at least 12 killed, including one American, and 309 injured, which Al Jazeera calls the deadliest attack on the kingdom in more than a decade. A projectile hit the terminal again on Sunday. The Saudi-led coalition blames the Houthis; Riyadh operations were suspended, at least 291 flights were cancelled in 24 hours and several airlines suspended Saudi service. Saudi Arabia says it will retaliate firmly, Secretary of State Rubio said “they must stop now” and Trump said the US is looking at a response.

Washington’s answer to the pump is Russian diesel. On 9 October Trump said Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the US and global markets, with 500,000 tonnes more in November; the Treasury issued a temporary general licence and Putin confirmed Russia’s willingness to supply. Analysts say the volumes barely move the price, and Russia itself has banned diesel exports since July, extended to the end of October. On Sunday Trump announced a Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire”; Zelensky said it was news to him and that Russian strikes continued, and the Kremlin had not confirmed it, so GEF treats it as unconfirmed.

Crude finished the week higher on supply risk, then wobbled on the weekend’s headlines. Brent settled $104.72 on Friday 9 October (+2.4% on the week from $102.25) and WTI $91.85 (+0.8%), a spread of about $12.9; the week included a 4.1% jump to $104.28 on Thursday after reports of US strike planning and the Acers attack, then Trump’s pledge of no attack before the 3 November midterms. Hurricane Isaias shut in about 63% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output as of 8 October (more than 70% reported on 9 October; Reuters-cited). On Monday Brent swung between $102.33 and $105.63 in Asian trade and was about $103.46 in the afternoon, in thin liquidity with Tokyo closed and US bond markets shut. In US inventories the EIA’s week to 2 October showed commercial crude down 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million, distillate at 105.1 million (about 13% below the five-year average) and the SPR down 0.8 million to 283.0 million, the lowest since October 1982.

At the pump the picture eased slightly. UK diesel averaged 199.9p a litre on 9 October, just under the record 200.01p of 2 October, with petrol at 174.79p (RAC Fuel Watch); the RAC warns that duty rises by 3p on 1 January and a further 2p on 1 March unless the cut is extended. US diesel is $6.20 a gallon (AAA), from a $6.52 record in September and $6.34 on 4 October. GEF has no newer government read for France than 5 October (about 15% of stations short of a fuel; a crowd tracker showed 11.5% on 8 October).

Europe’s gas refill is still borderline. EU storage was 73.61% on gas day 10 October (GIE AGSI+ direct read), up 0.32 points in two days, about +0.16 a day. At the 14-day average of +0.20 the EU would reach about 77.9% by 1 November, and at the last two days’ pace about 77.1%, against about +0.29 a day needed for the relaxed 80% target. Germany is at 59.8% on estimated data. With US midterms on 3 November and Israel’s election on 27 October, Al Jazeera reports that no diplomatic breakthrough is expected before then.

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Base case (50%): no US strike before the 3 November midterms but the war keeps widening on the Saudi and shipping fronts; tanker attacks continue intermittently; Brent $95-108; US diesel holds near $6.00-6.20 as the G7 release and the Russian licence land; UK diesel stays near £2; EU gas finishes near 77-78%, short of 80% but inside the regulation’s flexibility band. Upside risk to prices (30%): Saudi retaliation or a US response to the Riyadh strikes widens the war to Saudi and Red Sea infrastructure; Brent above $115 and diesel back to record. Downside (20%): the Russian diesel flows and the energy ceasefire hold and an Iran–Oman route arrangement gains US backing after the midterms; Brent back toward $90, diesel toward $5.80. Any of these can switch on a single incident; GEF treats the paths as scenarios, not forecasts.