Five monitored maritime chokepoints — flow status, risk ratings and disruption analysis
Five narrow waterways together carry the majority of seaborne crude oil, refined petroleum products and liquefied natural gas trade globally. Disruption at any one of them rapidly translates into supply tightness in downstream markets. This page tracks operational flow status and risk ratings at each chokepoint, derived from a combination of AIS vessel tracking, government and operator filings, and verified incident reports.
The narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and onward to the Indian Ocean. Hormuz has historically carried approximately 20% of global oil and a substantial share of refined-product and LNG trade — Qatar's entire LNG export portfolio transits the strait, along with the bulk of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Iran itself. Since February 28, 2026 the strait has been effectively closed to commercial transit; AIS-frame analysis confirms traffic at approximately 5% of pre-war baseline volumes. The Persian Gulf side hosts an extended queue of stranded tankers (approximately 166–230 vessels in mid-May 2026), and approximately 22,500 mariners on 1,550+ commercial vessels remain in the broader strait region per US Joint Chiefs. For the full live status, day count, oil-price impact and crisis timeline, see the dedicated Strait of Hormuz status page.
The southern entrance to the Red Sea, between Yemen, Djibouti and Eritrea. Bab el-Mandeb carries approximately 10–12% of global seaborne crude trade under normal conditions and is the only maritime route between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean. The chokepoint has been under intermittent attack risk from Houthi maritime forces since late 2023; many vessels now transit with AIS transponders dark for operational security, complicating accurate vessel counts. Flow estimates suggest approximately 30% of pre-war volumes are currently transiting; the remainder route around the Cape of Good Hope at significant time and cost penalty.
The man-made waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, operated by Egypt's Suez Canal Authority. Suez itself has not been physically constrained in 2026 — the binding constraint upstream is willingness to transit Bab el-Mandeb. Northbound transit volumes (carrying Asian and Middle Eastern flows toward European markets) are running at approximately 35% of pre-war norms; southbound volumes have absorbed some of the redirected European demand for Mediterranean and Asian destinations.
The principal east-west chokepoint between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, running between Indonesia and Malaysia. Malacca carries approximately 25-30% of global seaborne trade by volume and is the primary route for Middle Eastern crude moving to Chinese, Korean, Japanese and Southeast Asian refining centres. As Hormuz-bound cargoes have rerouted, Malacca traffic has materially densified — AIS frames show 150+ vessels at any time, with concentrated holding patterns near Singapore and Johor Bahru. The chokepoint is not currently under direct security threat, but the capacity headroom is now thin.
The lock-based canal between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, operated by the Panama Canal Authority. Panama is a relatively minor chokepoint for crude oil but a significant route for LNG carriers serving Asian markets from US Gulf Coast terminals. Water-level constraints affected 2023-2024 transit capacity but have eased in 2025-2026. Current operations are orderly with approximately 25 vessels per AIS frame.
Chokepoint flow estimates are not precise vessel counts — they aggregate AIS observations, port-state inspection records, satellite imagery review, operator filings and inter-agency intelligence. Some vessels do not broadcast AIS for commercial reasons (sanctions compliance, route confidentiality) or for security reasons (Bab el-Mandeb transit avoidance). Where AIS is suppressed, vessel counts are inferred from satellite imagery and port-call records and explicitly flagged in the data note. For live position data on individual vessels see the live traffic map. For the broader supply consequences of chokepoint disruption see the main dashboard and weekly risk analysis briefing.