Strait of Hormuz Status — Is It Open?

The June 17 MoU has broken down under a second, harder escalation cycle, and this time the US itself has changed the rules of the waterway. Iran shut the strait de facto on February 28, 2026; the June 17 interim deal reopened it under a 60-day toll-free window; a first vessel-strike cycle in late June was contained. A second, more serious cycle began July 7, when three vessels were struck near Oman and the US revoked Iran’s oil-sale sanctions waiver; strikes continued through Khamenei’s funeral rather than pausing for it, and a fresh round hit Iran July 11–13. On July 12, Iran’s IRGC struck two AIS-dark supertankers and a Cyprus-flagged container ship (one Indian crew member still missing); on July 13, the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC confirmed two of its own tankers were hit by projectiles in Omani territorial waters, killing one mariner — a first-party operator disclosure, not a third-party claim. The US launched a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Iran retaliated against US-linked bases in Jordan (10 missiles, 8 intercepted per Jordan’s own statement), Bahrain and Kuwait. Two new elements changed the shape of the crisis this week: the US Navy reimposed its blockade on Iranian shipping, effective 4pm ET today, and President Trump announced the US itself will charge a 20% toll on all other cargo transiting the strait (roughly $32 million per supertanker), naming Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait as intended payers — a second toll claim stacked on top of Iran’s own reserved post-60-day fee right. Physically, Kpler counted just 14 vessels transiting Sunday July 12 (four crude tankers), down about 60% week-on-week and the worst print since the June 18 reopening began; Windward reports the US-protected southern (Omani) corridor “effectively collapsed” over the weekend as operators increasingly comply with Iran’s demand to route via its own northern lane instead. Iran continues exporting regardless: Kpler estimates more than 9.2 million barrels of Iranian crude have transited Hormuz since the ceasefire was declared over July 8, much of it via six US-sanctioned supertankers running AIS-dark. Brent settled +9.59% Monday at $83.30 — its largest single-day gain in more than six years — and traded near $86 intraday Tuesday, now roughly 19% above its pre-war level; the price/physical-severity gap GEF tracked last week has largely closed. GEF’s own independent AIS audit has tracked the chokepoint continuously since July 1: COBA, present in literally every frame, finally broke an 18-frame, roughly 13-day unbroken streak the same morning the blockade took effect. GEF rates the strait CRITICAL, WORSENING — corroborated by CENTCOM, ADNOC and Jordan’s own first-party statements, not resting on rhetoric alone.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Before the 2026 closure, roughly 20% of the world's oil and a large share of its liquefied natural gas passed through it — and crucially, there is no full-capacity alternative route out of the Gulf. A couple of pipelines (in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) can bypass a fraction of the volume, but most Gulf crude has nowhere else to go. That is what makes Hormuz the single most important oil chokepoint on Earth: closing it doesn't reroute a fifth of seaborne oil, it removes it.

The impact on oil prices and fuel supply

Removing that much supply at once pushed crude sharply higher. Brent and WTI have traded roughly 40-50% above their pre-war levels throughout the crisis, with Brent peaking around $126 in early May before easing on hopes of a deal. The shock did not stop at the oil price: it cascaded through global refining, aviation-fuel availability, retail gasoline, and national fuel reserves, producing confirmed fuel shortages across more than thirty countries and the largest single oil-supply disruption in IEA recorded history — cumulative losses now exceeding one billion barrels. This is the core idea the whole site tracks: a disruption at one node propagates through the entire energy system.

Is the strait open right now?

Today (August 20, 2026) marks Day 173. The escalation is now economic as well as military: the UAE suspended ALL financial and economic transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing ballistic missiles at Emirati territory -- a significant break, given the UAE has historically been one of Iran's most important regional trade partners and a major conduit for Iranian goods. Brent settled at $91.62 Wednesday (+0.7%, +60c) and WTI at $85.83 (+1.1%, +89c), both their highest closes since Jul 24, in a fourth consecutive session of gains. Trump said there are no ongoing negotiations with Tehran while confirming the naval blockade remains in effect -- though he added he would be open to resuming talks "at some point" and maintained that oil continues to flow through the waterway. Eight attacks on vessels transiting Hormuz have been reported so far this month, including UAE- and Saudi-linked ships. Separately, Russian crude shipments from western ports fell to about 2.3 million bpd in the first half of August, roughly 15% below the loading plan, due to disruptions at Novorossiysk. On the domestic side the picture is genuinely mixed rather than uniformly bullish, and GEF continues to hold both threads: EIA data for the week ending Aug 14 showed US crude inventories ROSE 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million -- a second consecutive build that Reuters framed as easing tight-supply concerns -- with refinery utilization up a point to 97.2%. But distillates went the other way, drawing 1.5 million barrels to their lowest level in over a month, now 13% below the five-year average -- the tightest part of the barrel and the metric GEF watches most closely, given diesel's role in freight, agriculture and power generation. Gulf producers continue moving significant volumes via alternative routes and discreet shipments. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. GEF holds Hormuz at CRITICAL.

How the crisis unfolded