Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed right now?

As of June 23, 2026 (Day 115), the strait's status is CONTESTED. Iran's IRGC re-declared it closed on June 20, but the Bürgenstock quadrilateral talks (US-Iran, Pakistan, Qatar) have concluded with a de-confliction channel for Hormuz safe-passage as the key agreed deliverable. The uranium enrichment impasse (President Pezeshkian: Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich") remains the core unresolved variable. US CENTCOM says traffic continues to flow, Iran's own foreign ministry confirmed shipping "operating normally," and AIS shows ~30 vessels in-frame with day-over-day name turnover. The underlying picture remains a fragile REOPENING. The US and Iran SIGNED the 14-point interim deal on June 17; the US lifted the Hormuz blockade on June 18; first Saudi-owned tankers transited June 19. The central deep-water channel remains closed with roughly 80 mines to clear (~40-50 days). GEF rates Hormuz ELEVATED (reopening, recovery-fragile).

How much oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?

Before the February 28, 2026 closure, approximately 20% of the world's oil and a large share of its liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz — roughly 21 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products. The strait is the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf, and there is no full-capacity alternative: a couple of pipelines (in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) can bypass a fraction of the volume, but most Gulf crude has nowhere else to go. That is what makes Hormuz the single most important oil chokepoint on Earth: closing it doesn't reroute a fifth of seaborne oil, it removes it.

What countries depend on the Strait of Hormuz?

The Persian Gulf producers whose oil exports transit the strait are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Iran, and Bahrain. On the receiving end, the most exposed importers are in Asia: China, India, Japan, and South Korea collectively take the majority of Hormuz crude. Singapore and South Korean refineries that supply Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Latin America are themselves significantly supplied by Hormuz crude, creating second-order exposure. The EU and the UK are less directly exposed to Hormuz crude (they rely more on North Sea, North Atlantic and Russian-replacement supply), but they are heavily exposed to the jet fuel and diesel that Asian refineries produce and that European airlines and freight depend on. The US is the least directly exposed but is affected through global crude pricing and indirectly through refined product trade.

When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

Reopening began on June 18, 2026. The US-Iran deal was signed June 17, the US lifted the naval blockade June 18, and the first commercial tankers are transiting via the Oman/Iran coastal routes. But reopening is a process, not a switch: the central deep-water channel is still mined (about 80 mines, roughly 40-50 days to clear), Friday flows slowed, and Iran has floated a mandatory transit-insurance charge while the planned Switzerland nuclear talks were cancelled. Kpler projects about 50% of pre-war transit volume within 30 days if there are no setbacks; full normalization (de-mining, evacuating trapped tankers, restarting idled production and restocking) still takes weeks to months, and repairing facilities and restoring pre-war output takes multiple quarters to years (ClearView Energy). The GEF Jun 15/17/19 AIS audit shows the first foreign-flag tonnage returning among a still-domestic-dominated fleet.

What is the alternative to the Strait of Hormuz?

There is no full-capacity alternative. Two pipelines can move some Gulf crude around the strait: the East-West Petroline in Saudi Arabia (Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, capacity approximately 5 million barrels per day) and the ADCOP pipeline in the UAE (Habshan to Fujairah, capacity approximately 1.5 million barrels per day). Combined, these can move roughly 6.5 million barrels per day — about a third of the pre-war Hormuz flow. The remaining 14+ million barrels per day have no overland alternative. The Bab el-Mandeb at the southern end of the Red Sea is sometimes invoked as an alternative route, but it is itself a chokepoint (and Iran threatened on June 1 to extend closure to Bab el-Mandeb in addition to Hormuz). The structural lack of alternatives is what makes Hormuz qualitatively different from other major chokepoints.

How is the Strait of Hormuz crisis affecting oil and gas prices?

Removing roughly 20% of seaborne oil supply at once pushed crude sharply higher. Brent and WTI have traded roughly 40-55% above their pre-war levels throughout the crisis, with Brent peaking around $126 in early May before easing on hopes of a deal, falling to a six-week low of $91.82 on May 30, rebounding to ~$98 on Wednesday June 3 on the US-Iran kinetic exchange, and then easing again as Energy Secretary Chris Wright's June 9 claim that Hormuz traffic was "rising very meaningfully" drove Brent to settle at $91.11 (−3.4%) and WTI to $88.20 (−6.1%) that Tuesday — before Iran's June 10 retaliatory strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan lifted Brent to a $93.10 Wednesday settle (+2.2%) and second-day US strikes pushed it to $95.45 intraday Thursday June 11. The shock has cascaded through global refining, aviation fuel availability, retail gasoline (US AAA national average $4.16 vs $2.98 pre-conflict, +44%), and national fuel reserves. The IEA reports cumulative supply losses now exceeding one billion barrels — the largest single oil-supply disruption in its records. More than 30 countries are tracking confirmed fuel shortages or supply stress as a result, with European jet fuel, US strategic reserves, and Australian retail fuel among the most affected systems.

Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz Status — Is It Open?

Live status of the world's most important oil chokepoint: CONTESTED — Iran re-declared closure on June 20, but the US and live AIS show traffic still flowing (reopening had begun June 18 after the June 17 US-Iran deal). Day count, tanker traffic, oil-price impact and what it means — updated daily.

Hormuz Updated June 23, 2026

CONTESTED — Bürgenstock Day 2 underway Mon Jun 22 (de-confliction channel agreed Jun 21; uranium enrichment stalled). IRGC re-declared closure Jun 20, but CENTCOM (55 ships Sat), Iran MFA ("operating normally") and AIS (~30 vessels, names turning over) all contradict it. Deal signed Jun 17, blockade lifted Jun 18; central channel still mined (~80 mines). Reopening stalled on the re-declaration, not reversed

Days since closure 111 since Feb 28, 2026

Tanker traffic ~85% ↓ but rising — first transits Jun 18

Brent crude ~$79 Jun 18 settle · ~38% below the April peak

Pre-war oil share ~20% of world seaborne oil

The US and Iran have SIGNED a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait is now reopening — but it is a process, not a switch. Iran shut the waterway de facto on February 28, 2026, and the IRGC formally declared it closed on June 11. The 14-point interim deal was signed on June 17 (reopen Hormuz toll-free for at least 60 days, the US ends the naval blockade, sanctions on Iranian oil are lifted, and 60 days of follow-on nuclear talks). On June 18 the US lifted the Hormuz blockade and at least 10 commercial vessels transited that morning — including the first Saudi-owned tonnage to move since February — via the northern (Iranian-waters) and southern (Omani-waters) coastal routes, with the Joint Maritime Information Center advising vessels hug the Oman coast. The catch is physical: the central deep-water channel stays closed with ~80 mines to clear (about 40-50 days), Friday-morning flows slowed, and Iran floated a mandatory transit-insurance charge. The GEF Jun 15/17/19 AIS audit shows the turn — Hormuz is still ~20-25 vessels and Iranian-domestic-dominated, but the first non-domestic names (DESH VAIBHAV, NIKI, ATEELA) now appear among them. Full normalization still takes weeks to months (de-mining, evacuating trapped tankers, restarting production), so GEF rates the strait ELEVATED — reopening, recovery-fragile, not cleared.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Before the 2026 closure, roughly 20% of the world's oil and a large share of its liquefied natural gas passed through it — and crucially, there is no full-capacity alternative route out of the Gulf. A couple of pipelines (in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) can bypass a fraction of the volume, but most Gulf crude has nowhere else to go. That is what makes Hormuz the single most important oil chokepoint on Earth: closing it doesn't reroute a fifth of seaborne oil, it removes it.

The impact on oil prices and fuel supply

Removing that much supply at once pushed crude sharply higher. Brent and WTI have traded roughly 40-50% above their pre-war levels throughout the crisis, with Brent peaking around $126 in early May before easing on hopes of a deal. The shock did not stop at the oil price: it cascaded through global refining, aviation-fuel availability, retail gasoline, and national fuel reserves, producing confirmed fuel shortages across more than thirty countries and the largest single oil-supply disruption in IEA recorded history — cumulative losses now exceeding one billion barrels. This is the core idea the whole site tracks: a disruption at one node propagates through the entire energy system.

Is a reopening close?

Today (June 23, 2026) marks Day 115 — and the status remains contested. The Bürgenstock quadrilateral talks (US, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar) have concluded with the Hormuz de-confliction channel — a safe-passage coordination mechanism — as the principal agreed deliverable. The uranium enrichment impasse is the unresolved core: President Pezeshkian stated Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich," a direct conflict with Washington's demands, and this track is what matters most for the next 30 days. On Saturday June 20, Iran's IRGC re-declared the strait closed, citing Israel's Lebanon strikes and US non-implementation of the deal. But CENTCOM (Capt. Hawkins) said Iran does not control the strait and that traffic continues to flow (55 merchant ships Saturday), Iran's own foreign ministry confirmed shipping was "operating normally," and the GEF Jun 20/21 AIS audit shows ~30 vessels in-frame on both mornings with the foreign-flag tonnage fully turning over day-to-day — movement, not a sealed waterway. The US-Iran interim deal was signed on June 17; the US lifted the naval blockade on June 18 (with until July 19 to fully lift its port blockade); first Saudi-owned tankers transited June 19. The central deep-water channel is still mined (~80 mines, roughly 40-50 days to clear); Iran floated a mandatory transit-insurance charge Friday; and major operators such as Mitsui OSK Lines say they will not resume transits until the strait is proven safe in practice. ClearView Energy frames the physics: de-mining, evacuating trapped tankers and restarting production take "weeks to months," while repairing facilities and restoring pre-war output takes "multiple quarters to years." Kpler projects about 50% of pre-war transit volume within 30 days if there are no setbacks. Brent settled $78.2 on Monday Jun 22 (−3.0% from Fri $80.59), about 38% below the April peak — the war premium is nearly fully unwound. The honest read at Day 115: the reopening is real and underway; the IRGC re-declaration is contested posturing, not a reversal — but the uranium enrichment track is the variable that matters most for the next 30 days.

How the crisis unfolded

Feb 28Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping after US and Israeli strikes; the war begins.

Apr 8A short-lived two-week ceasefire allows limited safe passage; it later breaks down.

Apr 13The US adds a counter-blockade of Iranian ports — both Gulf maritime corridors are now shut.

May 16The IEA reports cumulative supply losses exceeding one billion barrels — the largest disruption in its records.

May 23-24A US-Iran deal to reopen the strait is described as "largely negotiated"; a handful of LNG tankers transit.

May 26Five supertankers clear the strait — the first non-Iranian VLCC transits since the closure (Eagle Verona, Universal Winner, Eagle Veracruz, Nissos Keros + 1). Bloomberg: "beginnings of a recalibration."

May 27-28Brent settles $96.67 (5-week low) / WTI breaks below $90 to $88.68 on rising deal odds; White House dismisses Iran's leaked draft deal as "a complete fabrication"; framework remains unsigned.

Jun 1Deal track reverses: Iran reportedly suspends US messaging channel (Tasnim) after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, signals weighing full closure of both Hormuz AND Bab el-Mandeb. Crude rebounds — Brent +5% intraday Mon, settles ~$94.99.

Jun 3Standoff turns kinetic: US CENTCOM confirms strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island (IRGC "missile city" in the strait). Iran ballistic missiles — 2 toward Kuwait fall short, 3 toward Bahrain intercepted. IRGC claims 5th Fleet HQ strikes; CENTCOM: "FALSE." 6th vessel disabled under US blockade. Brent rebounds toward $98, third straight session of gains.

Jun 5-7Crude breaks down on demand-side + de-escalation push: Brent -2.3% to $93.05 Fri close, WTI to $90.30. Trump publicly criticises Israeli Beirut strikes, urges Netanyahu to stand down, calls Tehran to resume negotiations. OPEC+ approves third monthly output increase (+188 kbpd for July) at Jun 5 JMMC. Brief explosion at Oman's Mina Al Fahal export terminal — operations resumed.

Jun 8Day 100 milestone — longer than every post-WWII chokepoint closure on record. Strait still effectively closed; IEA cumulative supply losses exceed 1 billion barrels.

Jun 9Day 101 — direct US-Iran kinetic cycle reopens. Iran shoots down US Army Apache helicopter patrolling the strait (Trump confirms two pilots safe). US CENTCOM "self-defense strikes" on Iranian ports and islands in response that evening. Energy Sec Wright (Atlantic Council): Hormuz traffic "rising very meaningfully" — Brent settles −3.4% to $91.11, WTI −6.1% to $88.20.

Jun 10Day 102 — US strikes ~20 targets; Iran hits Gulf US bases. US fires 49 Tomahawks at ~20 targets, some within 40 miles of Tehran (Trump, Fox News), in retaliation for the Apache downing. Iran fires drones + ballistic missiles at US facilities in Kuwait (Ali Al-Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber air bases), Bahrain (Sheikh Issa air base / 5th Fleet) and Jordan (Azraq) — CENTCOM says all failed to hit intended targets, but Kuwaiti authorities confirm 1 killed and 60+ injured. Trump claims US "secretly moved" 200 ships + 100M+ barrels through Hormuz; IMF PortWatch shows 2 transits Jun 7 vs 94/day baseline. EIA WPSR: crude −7.23M w/e Jun 5, 7th straight draw. Brent settles $93.10 (+2.2%).

Jun 11Day 103 — IRGC formally declares the strait closed. "Closed to all vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships... any vessel attempting to transit will be targeted" (IRGC Telegram). CENTCOM disputes: "Commercial ships are continuing to transit." Second-day US strikes hit radar, air-defense and ground-control sites at Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Jask and Sirik; CENTCOM declares strikes "completed," lifting hopes talks could resume. Brent trades $94.58–95.45 intraday before paring to ~$94; WTI ~$92.

Jun 12Day 104 — deal signing possible this weekend. Trump calls off Thursday-night strikes, declares "a great settlement of the war with Iran... subject to finalization of documents"; says signing could come this weekend, likely in Europe. Fars (semi-official): Tehran likely to accept. Earlier in the week Trump threatened to "take" Kharg Island. Brent settles $90.38 Thu (−2.9%), trades ~$89 Fri — 2-month low; WTI $87.71 → ~$86. EIA June STEO: global demand now forecast to FALL 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Caveat: mine clearance + idled fields + repairs = months to normal flow even if signed.

Jun 13Day 105 — deal at the one-yard line; open-vs-closed contested. Mediator Pakistan reports a "final, agreed-upon text"; Bessent says signing could come "this weekend or Monday" (80% per a US official, Vance to attend). But the sides describe different deals — US: full nuclear dismantlement; Iranian media (Mehr 14-pt draft): "no new nuclear commitments." Friday night Iran launched multiple one-way drones at commercial ships; CENTCOM downed all, says corridor "remains open for transit"; Iran claimed it stopped a tanker. Brent $87.33 Fri settle (−3.4%), 8-week low; WTI $84.88.

Jun 14Day 106 — Trump says the deal signs today; Iran has not committed. Trump posts that the deal "is scheduled to get signed tomorrow [today], and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL," timing the signing to his birthday. Pakistan readies an electronic signing within 24 hours. But Iran's FM spokesman Baqaei calls a signing "unlikely" today, citing "the hesitancy of the other side." ClearView Energy: even after a signature, physical reopening takes "weeks to months," full normalization "multiple quarters to years." GEF Jun 12-14 AIS audit: Hormuz still ~18 vessels, domestic-flag only.

Jun 15Day 107 — Trump declares the deal "complete" and orders the blockade lifted; strait stays shut. Over the weekend Trump posts that "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," authorizing the "toll-free opening" of the Strait and the "immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade" — then adds the opening comes "upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal." Pakistan's PM Sharif and Iran's Deputy FM Gharibabadi both confirm the deal is reached and the MOU text finalized; the formal electronic signing is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland, with 60 days of follow-on nuclear talks. The naval blockade is being stood down, but the strait remains physically closed pending the signing and mine-clearing; GEF AIS still shows domestic-flag traffic only. Full commercial flow remains weeks out — the de-escalation is real on paper, unproven on the water.

Jun 17Day 109 — the deal is SIGNED. Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian sign the 14-point interim MOU on Wednesday night: the Strait of Hormuz reopens toll-free for at least 60 days, the US ends its naval blockade (with until July 19 to fully lift it), sanctions on Iranian oil are waived, and Iran is to clear all mines within 30 days. The fate of Iran's nuclear program — enrichment, stockpile, missiles — is left to 60 days of follow-on talks. Iranian hardliners and Israel both signal reservations.

Jun 18Day 110 — blockade lifted, first transits. The US lifts the Hormuz blockade and the first commercial vessels move — at least seven transit Thursday (MarineTraffic via CNN), including the first Saudi-owned tankers since February; ~10 million barrels are observed transiting or positioned near the strait. Iran designates the central deep-water channel a mine-danger zone, so traffic uses the mine-free northern (Iranian-waters) and southern (Omani-waters) coastal routes, with JMIC advising vessels hug the Oman coast. Brent settles $79.55.

Jun 19Day 111 — reopening turns stop-start; Switzerland talks cancelled. After Thursday's surge, Friday-morning outbound flows slow — no vessels seen leaving the Gulf — and Tehran floats a mandatory transit-insurance charge (currently free), reasserting control. The planned US-Iran nuclear talks in Switzerland are cancelled, denting confidence in the deal's durability; southern-Lebanon fighting continues. The GEF Jun 15/17/19 AIS audit shows the turn: Hormuz still ~20-25 vessels and domestic-dominated, but the first non-domestic names (DESH VAIBHAV, NIKI, ATEELA) now appear. Brent steadies near $80 (week −8.5%).

Jun 20Day 112 — reopening continues into the weekend; operators stay cautious. With oil markets closed for the weekend, attention turns to the implementation clock: Iran is to clear all mines within 30 days under the MOU, though US officials estimate full clearance could take up to six months, and the US has until July 19 to fully lift its port blockade. Recent transits run at roughly two dozen vessels a day versus 100+ pre-war, and major operators stay wary — Mitsui OSK Lines says it will not resume transits until the strait is proven safe in practice. The strait is reopening, but normal throughput is still weeks away.

Jun 21Day 113 — contested re-closure. Iran's military command and the IRGC re-declare the strait closed (announced Saturday Jun 20), warning vessels off and citing Israel's continued Lebanon strikes (which killed 16+ Saturday) and US non-implementation of the deal's first clause. The US disputes it: CENTCOM says Iran does not control the strait and that 55 merchant ships and 17+ million barrels transited Saturday, and Iran's own foreign ministry tells Tasnim shipping is "operating normally." The GEF Jun 20/21 AIS audit backs the on-the-water read — ~30 vessels in-frame both mornings with the foreign-flag tonnage fully turning over (movement, not a sealed strait). Bürgenstock quadrilateral talks open Sunday in Switzerland (US, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar); Day 1 produces agreement in principle on a Hormuz de-confliction channel. Sunday-evening futures open flat/soft, confirming the market reads the IRGC re-declaration as posturing.

Jun 22Day 114 — Bürgenstock Day 2; de-confliction channel agreed; IRGC re-declaration contested. Talks extend to a second day, with Qatar and Pakistan citing "encouraging progress." The stumbling block: President Pezeshkian says Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich uranium" — a direct conflict with US demands; Trump threatens "hit very hard again" if Hezbollah doesn't stand down. The IRGC re-declaration (Jun 20) remains contested: CENTCOM (Capt. Hawkins): "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic continues to flow." Iran's own MFA: shipping "operating normally." GEF AIS Jun 22: ~30 vessels in-frame, names turning over. Brent Mon intraday ~$79 (−1.9% from $80.59 Fri close) — no gap-up, confirming market treats re-declaration as posturing. Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 23Day 115 — Bürgenstock talks concluded; de-confliction channel operative; Brent $78.2 (Mon Jun 22 settle, −3.0%; war premium nearly fully unwound). The Bürgenstock quadrilateral process (US-Iran, Pakistan, Qatar) concluded with the Hormuz de-confliction channel as the principal agreed deliverable. The uranium enrichment impasse — Pezeshkian: Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich" — remains unresolved and is the variable that matters most for the next 30 days. IRGC re-declaration (Jun 20) continues to be contested: CENTCOM + AIS confirm traffic still flowing; Iran MFA maintains shipping "operating normally." Central channel still mined (~80 mines, ~40-50 days to clear). Bolivia re-escalated to active shortage (state of emergency Jun 20; military deployed; 14 dead; 50 days of blockades in La Paz/El Alto/Cochabamba). Australia: Geelong RCCU restarted Jun 23 at >90% capacity (alkylation unit offline into 2027). Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Live tracking

The day count and crude prices above update daily from the GEF data layer. For the live tanker-traffic map see marine traffic and the chokepoints tracker; for the week-by-week analysis see the risk analysis briefings; and for the downstream fuel shortages the crisis has caused, see the global shortages map. For country-by-country 2026 forecasts of what comes next, see the US gas price + SPR forecast, UK jet-fuel forecast, Australia retail-fuel forecast, and EU petrol & diesel forecast.