Will Australia have fuel shortages in 2026?

As of August 10, 2026, Australia is not experiencing physical fuel shortages — petrol and diesel remain available at the pump. Petrol in the five largest cities is confirmed at 193.6 c/L (ACCC 21st report, data to Jul 29), diesel at 232.8 c/L. The Geelong RCCU restart (Jun 23, >90% capacity, alkylation unit offline into 2027) remains a genuine tailwind. The Aug 2 decision this page tracked for months has now resolved: the remaining 16 c/L excise relief EXPIRED as scheduled, with no further extension granted, and the rate returned to 53.7 c/L (full restoration plus a 1.1 c/L CPI adjustment) from Aug 3 -- meaning retail prices are set to climb mechanically further still, on top of the 193.6 c/L level already confirmed before that step-up.

When is the Geelong refinery restarting?

Viva Energy's Geelong Refinery — Australia's largest of two operating refineries — confirmed on June 23, 2026 that its Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit (RCCU) is back online at >90% of total refinery capacity. The RCCU had been offline since the April 15 fire at the connected Alkylation unit; while offline Geelong was running at approximately 60% capacity for petrol. The Alkylation unit remains offline as of July 1, with repair or replacement options being assessed; Geelong is expected to operate at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. The Geelong restart is confirmed fact, not a forecast risk. The remaining variable is the alkylation unit timeline, which affects premium unleaded production but not the volume forecast underpinning this page.

Will the Australian fuel excise cut be extended past June 30?

RESOLVED as of August 2, 2026, in the harder direction than either of this page's prior scenarios fully captured: the remaining 16 c/L excise relief expired as scheduled, with NO further extension granted. From August 3, the excise duty returned to 53.7 c/L -- the full 32 c/L pre-conflict-era rate plus a 1.1 c/L CPI indexation adjustment, confirmed by the Australian Taxation Office on Jul 29. This is a mechanical, government-confirmed cost increase layered directly on top of whatever the market price already is; it is not itself evidence of a physical shortage. The Jun 30 and Aug 2 binary decisions have both now resolved, both toward higher retail prices.

What is the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO)?

The Minimum Stockholding Obligation is a federal regulation, in force since 2022, requiring fuel suppliers to hold reserve stocks of petrol, diesel and jet fuel in addition to fuel already sold or contracted to customers. The MSO is calibrated to roughly 21 days of forward consumption cover (the precise structure varies by fuel type) and is reported weekly to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. The MSO is Australia's functional equivalent of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve or European national strategic reserves: a regulatory floor rather than an emergency buffer, but with the same supply-security purpose. As of June 3, 2026, petrol stocks under the MSO are at their highest level since the regime began, and diesel stocks are close to their highest — partly because the conflict triggered industry to maintain higher-than-required levels as a precaution, and partly because the four consecutive improving official prints reflect the demand response to elevated April prices not yet fully reversing.

Is petrol rationed in Australia right now?

No. There is no government-imposed petrol or diesel rationing in Australia as of June 8, 2026 — no volume caps, no station-level allocation, no government decree restricting fuel sales. The PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce's public position is that stocks of fuel are higher than average and offer a buffer if future challenges emerge. The retail picture is therefore: prices are well off peak (down 29-31% from the end-March peak), supply is reliable, and the active GEF watch on Australia is for the indirect exposure (Hormuz → Asian refineries → Australian imports) and for remote-community access in areas outside the ACCC's five-cities sample — not for an imminent physical shortage in the major urban markets.

Shortages Australia 2026 Forecast

Australia Petrol & Diesel — 2026 Two-Scenario Forecast

Q: Why is Australia so dependent on imported fuel?

Australia imports approximately 90% of its refined liquid fuels (petrol, diesel, jet) as a structural feature of its energy market, not as a recent change. The country has only two operating refineries — Viva Energy's Geelong (Victoria) and Ampol's Lytton (Queensland) — which together account for less than 20% of national demand. The ExxonMobil Altona refinery closed in 2021; BP Kwinana closed in 2021. Most refined product is imported from Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, whose refineries are themselves significantly supplied by Middle Eastern crude — meaning Australia is exposed to the Strait of Hormuz via a one-step indirection (Gulf cargoes → Asian refineries → Australian ports) even though Australian refineries themselves do not typically use Middle Eastern crude directly. The Minimum Stockholding Obligation, introduced in 2022 partly in response to this structural import dependence, requires industry to hold reserve stocks equivalent to roughly 21 consumption days.

Retail petrol price for the five largest Australian cities from February through year-end. The Aug 2 excise decision this page has tracked for months has now RESOLVED: the remaining 16 c/L relief expired, no extension granted, excise back to 53.7 c/L from Aug 3. ACCC's 21st report confirms petrol at 193.6 c/L (data to Jul 29, before the step-up compounds), diesel at 232.8 c/L. Chart geometry below is pending a refresh to this reading and the resolved outcome. Geelong RCCU restarted Jun 23 at >90% capacity.

Forecast Rebuilt August 16, 2026

AU live status Disruption map Airlines Travel guidance Timeline 2026 Forecast

Australia retail petrol in 2026: observed Feb–Jul 29, plus updated scenarios to year-end now that the Aug 2 excise decision has resolved

Y-axis is retail petrol price for the five largest Australian cities (AUD cents per litre — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth). Solid line is observed through Jul 22, the most recent ACCC-confirmed print (20th weekly report). REBUILT Jul 31: this rebuild replaces the prior page's Jul 17 ESTIMATE (~163 c/L) with ACCC's own confirmed 19th and 20th report prints -- 178.7 c/L (Jul 15) and 179.5 c/L (Jul 22) -- both notably higher than the estimate assumed, and continues the trend through this week's sharp Hormuz/Iran escalation (the direct US strike on Iran, the Damietta drone strike near Suez). Both scenario endpoints are revised up accordingly. Geelong RCCU restart (Jun 23, >90% capacity) and the confirmed 16 c/L excise extension through Aug 2 remain genuine tailwinds. Dashed lines bracket two paths from Jul 22, diverging on whether the remaining 16 c/L expires Aug 2 or gets extended.

Diesel — Australia's import-exposure tell because Middle East crudes refine into more diesel than petrol — is tracked alongside in the metrics box but not on the chart. Diesel was confirmed at 179.1 c/L Jul 1 (ACCC), up from 173.5 c/L Jun 30 and 180.1 c/L Jun 24 -- both fuels move in tandem under either scenario, with diesel roughly 20-25 c/L above petrol at current levels; estimated ~186 c/L today. UPDATE Jul 27: ACCC's 19th weekly report (data to Jul 15) confirmed petrol at 178.7 c/L and diesel at 199.0 c/L -- both now essentially at or above the Feb 20 pre-conflict baseline, a genuine reversal from the improvement this page tracked through May-June. Crude itself has since whipsawed sharply: Brent hit a two-month high near $102 Jul 23 before reversing to ~$91 by Jul 27 as the US and Iran paused direct strikes (fragile, conditional) -- while Bab el-Mandeb worsened, with the Houthis striking Saudi oil facilities directly. This adds fresh, two-sided uncertainty to both scenario paths below rather than clearly favoring either one.

December 2026 endpoint — retail petrol, five largest cities

Today (Jul 22 print, reviewed Jul 31) — ACCC-confirmed

~$1.63/L

ACCC's 21st weekly report (data to Jul 29) confirms 193.6 c/L for the five largest cities -- up sharply from the 20th report's 179.5 c/L (Jul 22). Diesel jumped to 232.8 c/L. This is still the PRE-excise-expiry level; the Aug 3 step-up to 53.7 c/L excise will push retail higher still once the next report lands.

Scenario 1 (DID NOT OCCUR) — Remaining 16 c/L extended past Aug 2

~$1.78/L

This scenario did NOT occur: no extension was granted. The remaining 16 c/L relief expired as scheduled Aug 2. Retained here for the record; see Scenario 2 for the realized path.

Scenario 2 (REALIZED) — Remaining 16 c/L expired Aug 2

~$1.98/L

This is what actually happened: the excise relief expired Aug 2 with no extension, confirmed by the ATO Jul 29. From the pre-expiry level of 193.6 c/L (Jul 29), the mechanical excise step-up (back to 53.7 c/L from Aug 3) implies retail should climb further still once the next ACCC report captures it -- GEF estimates a range in the low-to-mid $2.00s/L by year-end depending on how crude moves, though the exact path awaits the next confirmed print.

Geelong refinery status

RCCU RESTARTED Jun 23
>90% capacity confirmed

Viva Energy confirmed Jun 23: RCCU back online at >90% of normal capacity. Alkylation unit remains offline — repair or replacement options being assessed; Geelong operating at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. Australia's largest of two refineries; together cover <20% of national demand.

MSO stock status

Petrol: highest since MSO began
Diesel: close to highest

Per PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce (data to mid-June): stocks of diesel and petrol above average, fuel "arriving in the quantities, and at the frequency, we need and expect". Emergency shipments secured in early June, incl. 50 ML diesel bound for Kwinana (WA).

Excise decision (the live pivot)

Aug 2, 2026 (RESOLVED)
16 c/L relief expired, not renewed

RESOLVED: the government let the remaining 16 c/L excise relief expire as scheduled on Aug 2 -- no extension was granted. From Aug 3 the excise duty returned to 53.7 c/L (full restoration plus a 1.1 c/L CPI adjustment), confirmed by the ATO Jul 29. ACCC's 21st report (data to Jul 29) confirms petrol at 193.6 c/L for the five largest cities, diesel at 232.8 c/L -- both still the pre-expiry level; the Aug 3 step-up will show in the next report.

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Retail petrol — observed (5 largest cities)

Scenario 1: +16 c/L Jul 1 partial cliff, then 16 c/L extended Aug 2

Scenario 2: +16 c/L Jul 1 partial cliff, then +16 c/L full expiry Aug 2

Forecast model · GEF supply-chain analysis · observed retail prices from ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring (5 largest cities); stocks from PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce + DCCEEW MSO weekly reporting · scenarios are illustrative, not guarantees · refreshed after each official print (ACCC Fridays) and on policy events global-energy-flow.com · July 15, 2026

Reading the chart. The solid blue line is observed Australian retail petrol price for the five largest cities, from the pre-conflict baseline (week ending February 20) through August 16. The shape tells the story of the year so far: a sharp run-up from 177 to 263 cents per litre between Feb 28 (Hormuz closure) and end-March (compounded by the April 15 Geelong refinery fire mid-cycle), a recovery through spring, the Jul 1 excise step (157.1 → 151.5 → 158.1 c/L, all ACCC-confirmed), and then a further climb to 178.7 c/L (Jul 15), 179.5 c/L (Jul 22) and 193.6 c/L (Jul 29, all ACCC-confirmed) as the Hormuz crisis re-escalated and the Aug 2 excise decision approached. That decision has since resolved: the remaining 16 c/L relief expired with no extension, and the government's own tracker shows prices spiked further before easing slightly by Aug 12 to an estimated 207 c/L -- essentially flat through Aug 16. The single forward path (red) continues this trajectory to about 208 c/L by December; the "extended relief" path is no longer shown since that outcome did not occur.

Scenario 1 — did not occurRemaining 16 c/L extended beyond Aug 2. This path described the remaining 16 c/L relief being extended again on Aug 2 on cost-of-living grounds. That did not happen: the government let the relief expire as scheduled, with no extension granted. Retained here for the historical record only; see the realized path (formerly Scenario 2) for what actually occurred.

Scenario 2Remaining 16 c/L expires unrenewed Aug 2 -- REBUILT Jul 31, the more consequential path. The excise mechanics are unchanged: on this path, the remaining 16 c/L expires unrenewed on Aug 2, a further mechanical jump from whatever the pre-Aug-2 price is. Brent has whipsawed from $84 to $92 this week on the direct US strike on Iran and the Damietta drone strike near Suez, and nothing points toward near-term easing. After the Aug 2 step-up (from the confirmed 179.5 c/L pre-decision level to roughly 196 c/L immediately after), retail continues drifting upward rather than easing, ending December near 208 c/L; diesel proportionally higher too.

The excise decision (Jul 1 CONFIRMED, Aug 2 PENDING)Jul 1 landed as expected: partial step-up to 16 c/L relief, holding to Aug 2. Aug 2 is the live decision date. The Australian fuel excise was halved from 52.6 to 26.3 cents per litre on April 1, 2026, with states and territories agreeing to forgo GST revenue on fuel (~5.7 c/L) — a combined consumer-facing reduction of about 32 c/L. Rather than allowing the full 32 c/L to expire unrenewed on Jun 30 (feared outcome) or extending the full relief (hoped outcome), the government confirmed Jun 20 that a 16 c/L discount would remain in force until August 2 — and that step landed as scheduled on Jul 1, confirmed by ACCC at 158.1 c/L (up from 151.5 c/L Jun 30). After Aug 2, the cabinet must decide again: extend the remaining 16 c/L (Scenario 1) or let it expire in full (+16 c/L mechanical jump on Aug 2, Scenario 2). The two scenarios on this page now bracket that Aug 2 decision. GEF will update this page after each official ACCC print (Fridays, Australia time) and immediately upon any Aug 2 decision or further cabinet announcement.

Geelong & the MSOAustralia's import-dependence story, and the buffers that exist against it. Australia imports approximately 90% of its refined liquid fuels (petrol, diesel, jet) as a structural feature of its energy market — only Geelong (Viva Energy, Victoria) and Lytton (Ampol, Queensland) remain operating, and together they cover under 20% of national demand. Most refined product arrives from Singapore, South Korea and Japan, whose refineries are themselves significantly supplied by Middle Eastern crude — so the Strait of Hormuz reaches Australia by one-step indirection. Geelong RCCU RESTARTED Jun 23: Viva Energy confirmed the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit is back online at >90% of normal capacity. The Alkylation unit remains offline and "repair or replacement options are being assessed" — Geelong expected to operate at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. The Minimum Stockholding Obligation (in force since 2022) requires industry to hold roughly 21 days of forward consumption cover. As of the latest PM&C taskforce update (mid-June), stocks of diesel and petrol are above average — with petrol stocks at the highest level since the MSO began. None of this prevented the Jul 1 excise step-up from landing — buffers protect against physical shortages, not tax changes — but they do explain why the GEF Australia pin remains on watch rather than escalating to confirmed shortage.

MethodThis is a scenario forecast, not a prediction. The observed Feb-Jul line is built from ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring reports plus the PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce page. REBUILT Jul 31: the observed line now runs through ACCC's own confirmed 20th report (179.5 c/L, Jul 22) rather than this page's prior Jul 17 estimate, which understated the real trajectory by roughly 16 c/L. The Jul-Dec branches are illustrative model paths, not guarantees; the real outcome will depend on the federal cabinet's Aug 2 decision on the remaining excise relief, the alkylation unit repair timeline at Geelong, the pace of the Hormuz/Bab el-Mandeb crisis (Day 153, CRITICAL — this week's direct US strike on Iran and the Damietta drone strike near Suez both point toward continued pressure), international refined-product benchmark movements through winter (Australia's southern-hemisphere season), and weather-driven demand. The model is anchored on the ACCC-confirmed Jul 22 print and the Jun 23 Geelong restart, and is refreshed after each official print (ACCC publishes Fridays, Australia time) — and immediately upon any cabinet excise decision or Geelong status change. Sources: ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring Reports (including the confirmed 19th and 20th report 5-city prints); PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce public-information page; Viva Energy Jun 23 ASX disclosure on Geelong RCCU restart; Prime Minister of Australia Jun 20 media release (fuel excise relief extended to Aug 2); Australian Taxation Office excise duty rates; DCCEEW MSO weekly reporting. Per-disruption detail and the live AU shortage map at global-energy-flow.com/shortages/australia/.

Related forecasts: the US gas-price + SPR forecast tracks AAA pump price alongside the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown (the US equivalent of Australia's MSO); the UK jet-fuel forecast tracks British aviation against the IEA 23-day threshold; the EU petrol & diesel availability forecast covers continental Europe with a different metric (% of normal road-fuel supply). See also the Strait of Hormuz status page and the live global shortage tracker.